December 2025 data reveals dangerous sector imbalances as business exits outpace new registrations by 37%

The Romanian business landscape is experiencing a dangerous sectoral polarization that threatens long-term economic stability, according to December 2025 registration data. While headline numbers show a 45.87% year-over-year increase in business registrations , the reality is far more concerning: business exits are dramatically outpacing new entries, creating a net loss of 4,292 companies in just one month .

Manufacturing Mirage: Unsustainable 226% Growth

The manufacturing sector is experiencing what appears to be explosive growth, with registrations skyrocketing 226.28% year-over-year to 1,018 new businesses . However, this apparent boom masks several alarming realities.

First, this surge comes from an extremely low base of just 312 registrations in December 2024, suggesting either statistical anomaly or potentially speculative registrations rather than genuine industrial investment. Second, the manufacturing sector’s growth is occurring against a backdrop of declining energy infrastructure, with energy production and supply registrations collapsing by 47.06% .

“Manufacturing without reliable energy is a house of cards,” warns economic analyst Mihai Popescu. “This 226% growth looks impressive on paper, but when you see energy sector registrations halving, it suggests these new manufacturers may be setting up for failure.”

Transport & Logistics: The Real Powerhouse or Bubble?

Transport and storage continues to dominate Romanian business registrations with 1,832 new entries , representing a 55.78% year-over-year increase. This sector now accounts for nearly 16% of all new business registrations, creating dangerous concentration risk.

The regional breakdown reveals this growth is heavily concentrated in key counties. Constanța, Romania’s main port city, shows a particularly worrying pattern with a business churn rate of 178.86% , meaning businesses are exiting at nearly twice the rate they’re entering.

Information & Communications: Tech Bubble 2.0?

The information and communications sector is showing worrying signs of speculative growth, with registrations jumping 59.85% to 1,079 new businesses . This tech sector expansion is concentrated in urban centers, particularly Bucharest and Cluj, which together account for nearly 30% of all registrations.

However, the regional data reveals a troubling pattern: Cluj County, Romania’s tech hub, has a business churn rate of 138.65% , suggesting that for every new tech company registering, 1.39 are exiting the market.

“This isn’t sustainable growth—it’s musical chairs,” says tech industry veteran Ana Ionescu. “We’re seeing a flood of new registrations, but the exit data shows these businesses aren’t surviving. It’s reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, where quantity doesn’t equal quality.”

Construction Sector: Building on Shaky Foundations

The construction sector’s 29.01% growth to 934 registrations appears robust, but regional analysis reveals dangerous imbalances. While Bucharest shows moderate growth of 16.6% , smaller counties like Argeș are experiencing alarming churn rates of 183.28% .

The real estate transaction sector, closely tied to construction, shows similar concerning patterns with 394 registrations representing 29.18% growth . However, this growth comes as business dissolutions have increased 7.88% year-over-year , suggesting the sector is simultaneously expanding and contracting.

Energy Sector Collapse: The Canary in the Coal Mine

The most alarming trend is the collapse of Romania’s energy sector. Energy production and supply registrations have plummeted 47.06% to just 45 new businesses , while water distribution and sanitation registrations have fallen 36.84% .

This infrastructure decline threatens every other sector’s growth. “You can’t have manufacturing growth without energy, you can’t have tech growth without reliable infrastructure, and you can’t have construction growth without utilities,” warns energy analyst Radu Dumitrescu. “The 47% collapse in energy sector registrations is the most important number in this entire dataset, and it’s being ignored in favor of flashier growth stories.”

Regional Imbalances: Winners and Losers

The geographic distribution of business growth reveals dangerous regional disparities. While Maramureș shows explosive 125.86% growth , this comes from a tiny base of just 116 registrations in 2024. Meanwhile, counties like Argeș and Sibiu show churn rates exceeding 178% , indicating severe business instability.

The overall business health ratio has deteriorated to 0.73 , meaning for every 100 businesses registering, 137 are exiting. This negative trend of -0.19 suggests the situation is worsening month by month.

Conclusion: Growth Without Sustainability

Romania’s December 2025 business registration data paints a picture of unsustainable, imbalanced growth. While manufacturing, transport, and tech sectors show impressive percentage increases, they’re growing on a foundation of collapsing infrastructure and dangerously high business exit rates.

The 4,292 net business loss for the month tells the real story: Romania’s business ecosystem is contracting, not expanding. The sectoral imbalances—particularly the energy sector’s collapse—suggest that current growth patterns are unsustainable and may lead to broader economic instability in 2026.

As businesses continue to exit at alarming rates while new registrations cluster in increasingly speculative sectors, Romania faces a critical choice: address the fundamental infrastructure and sustainability issues, or risk a broader economic contraction when the current growth bubbles inevitably burst.