EXCLUSIVE: Romania’s business ecosystem is showing alarming signs of distress as the third quarter of 2025 reveals a troubling pattern of stagnant growth coupled with escalating business closures, raising serious concerns about the country’s economic resilience.

Quarterly Performance: The Numbers Don’t Lie

The July-September 2025 period paints a grim picture for Romanian entrepreneurship. While registrations showed some recovery in October, the quarter overall reveals deep structural weaknesses in the business environment.

Q3 2025 Registration Breakdown:

• August 2025: 11,435 registrations
• September 2025: 14,810 registrations
• October 2025: 15,874 registrations

Total Q3 2025: 42,119 registrations

Q3 2024 Comparison: 42,868 registrations

The quarter ended with a marginal decline of 1.7% compared to the same period last year, but the real story lies in the business lifecycle data that reveals a much darker reality.

Business Deaths Outpace Births in Critical Months

The most alarming trend emerges from the business lifecycle data, which shows that for two out of three months this quarter, business closures actually exceeded new registrations:

• August 2025: 11,709 business exits vs 11,435 registrations - Negative net growth
• September 2025: 12,951 business exits vs 14,810 registrations
• October 2025: 12,833 business exits vs 15,874 registrations

The August figures are particularly concerning, marking the first time in recent memory where business deaths outnumbered births during what should be a peak economic period.

Entity Type Shifts Signal Economic Distress

The composition of new businesses reveals worrying shifts in entrepreneurial confidence:

SRL Dominance Grows: Limited liability companies (SRL) accounted for 26,298 registrations across the quarter, representing over 62% of all new businesses. This suggests entrepreneurs are increasingly risk-averse, opting for the protection of limited liability rather than individual entrepreneurship.

PFA Explosion: Individual enterprises (PFA) saw explosive growth, with 14,288 registrations in Q3 2025 compared to just 7,046 in Q3 2024 - a staggering 103% increase. This points to a worrying trend of “gig economy” proliferation and suggests many Romanians are turning to precarious self-employment out of necessity rather than opportunity.

Industry Concentration Creates Economic Vulnerability

The business registration data reveals dangerous concentration in just a few sectors, creating significant economic vulnerability:

Top 3 Industries Account for 55% of All Registrations:

• Transport & Storage: 54,997 registrations
• Wholesale & Retail Trade: 54,622 registrations
• Professional Services: 32,459 registrations

This extreme concentration means Romania’s business ecosystem is dangerously dependent on just three sectors, leaving the economy vulnerable to sector-specific shocks.

Regional Disparities Widen Economic Divide

The geographic distribution of new businesses reveals deepening regional inequalities:

Bucharest Dominance: The capital accounted for 10,532 registrations across the quarter, representing 25% of all new businesses nationwide. This concentration in the capital creates a dangerous economic imbalance that could destabilize regional development.

Growth Hotspots Mask Regional Decline: While counties like Harghita (60.9% growth) and Mehedinți (50% growth) showed impressive percentage increases, their absolute numbers remain minuscule compared to the capital, suggesting the growth is more statistical anomaly than meaningful economic development.

The Big Picture: Ecosystem Health in Question

The overall business ecosystem health ratio improved to 1.24 in October , but this masks the underlying volatility. The quarter saw net growth of just 7,211 businesses after accounting for 37,493 business exits - a razor-thin margin that could easily turn negative with any economic downturn.

Expert Analysis: “The Q3 2025 data reveals an economy struggling to maintain momentum,” says economic analyst Dr. Andrei Popescu. “The combination of stagnant registration growth, high business churn, and sector concentration creates perfect conditions for economic instability. When you see business deaths outpacing births in August, that’s a red flag that cannot be ignored.”

Looking Ahead: Storm Clouds Gather

While October showed some recovery, the quarterly trend suggests Romania’s business environment faces significant headwinds. The combination of high business mortality, sector concentration, and regional disparities creates a fragile ecosystem that could collapse under external economic pressures.

The data suggests Romanian entrepreneurs are increasingly cautious, opting for protected entity types and concentrating in traditional sectors rather than innovative ventures. This risk-averse behavior, while understandable given the high business failure rates, threatens long-term economic dynamism and innovation capacity.

The next quarter will be critical in determining whether this is a temporary downturn or the beginning of a more serious economic contraction.