EXCLUSIVE: Behind the Headline Numbers, Romania’s Business Ecosystem Faces Unprecedented Churn and Structural Weakness

Quarterly Overview: The Illusion of Growth

The third quarter of 2025 reveals a deeply concerning picture of Romania’s business environment, with superficial growth figures masking fundamental weaknesses that threaten economic stability. While headline numbers show explosive growth compared to 2024, the underlying data tells a story of unsustainable expansion and alarming business failure rates.

Q3 2025 Registration Summary:

• July: 15,168 - up 117.68% from 2024
• August: 11,435 - up 116.24% from 2024
• September: 14,810 - up 54.51% from 2024

Total Q3 2025: 41,413 registrations - an unsustainable surge that raises serious questions about business quality and longevity.

The Business Churn Crisis Deepens

The most alarming revelation from Q3 data is the staggering rate of business exits, creating a “revolving door” economy where companies are born and die at unprecedented rates.

September 2025 Business Exits:

• **12,951
• **5,339
• **6,025
• 87.45% churn rate - meaning nearly 9 out of 10

The net growth of only 1,859 represents a dangerously thin margin for economic stability.

Entity Type Shifts Signal Structural Weakness

The composition of new businesses reveals worrying trends that suggest Romania’s entrepreneurial landscape is becoming increasingly fragile.

PFA Explosion Masks Quality Concerns:

• **PFA registrations surged 117.53
• **Individual enterprises (II) up 83.08
• **SRLs grew only 33.89

This shift toward individual entrepreneurship rather than corporate structures suggests businesses are becoming smaller, less capitalized, and more vulnerable to economic shocks.

Industry Concentration Creates Systemic Risk

The business registration data reveals dangerous over-concentration in specific sectors, creating systemic risk for the entire economy.

Top Industries Show Volatile Growth:

• Wholesale and retail trade: 18,223
• Transport and storage: 17,828
• Professional services: 10,869 registrations

Critical sectors showing alarming declines:

• **Agriculture, forestry,
• Multiple major sectors showing 100% declines in the industry trends data

Regional Disparities Widen Economic Divide

The geographic distribution of business activity reveals growing regional inequality that threatens national economic cohesion.

Bucharest Dominance Creates Imbalance:

• Bucharest: 3,366
• Dolj County: 102.53
• Alba County: 146.5

This concentration in urban centers and specific counties creates economic vulnerability and reduces national resilience.

Seasonal Patterns Mask Deeper Problems

The quarterly pattern shows concerning volatility:

• July peak: 15,168 registrations
• August dip: 11,435 registrations - a 24.6% monthly decline
• September recovery: 14,810 registrations

This rollercoaster pattern suggests businesses are responding to temporary factors rather than sustainable economic fundamentals.

**The Bottom Line: Unsustainable Growth, appears impressive on the surface, the underlying data reveals a business ecosystem in crisis:

1. Massive business churn threatens economic stability
2. Shift toward fragile individual enterprises reduces business resilience
3. Industry concentration creates systemic risk
4. Regional disparities widen economic divides
5. Volatile growth patterns suggest unsustainable expansion

The 12-month moving average of 12,152 provides little comfort when set against the 87.45% churn rate that indicates most new businesses won’t survive.

Conclusion: Romania’s Q3 2025 business registration data paints a picture of explosive but fragile growth, with the business ecosystem showing signs of structural weakness that could have severe consequences for economic stability in the coming months. The numbers suggest we may be witnessing a bubble rather than sustainable development.