Churn Rate at 124%, But a Meaningful Recovery from December’s 137% Low

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The Big Picture: More Businesses Are Leaving Than Arriving

Romania opened 2026 with a business landscape under measurable strain. In January, the country recorded 11,075 new registrations against 13,761 total business exits , producing a net loss of 2,686 active entities — meaning the registered business stock shrank for the month.

The resulting churn rate of 124.25% — meaning exits ran at 124 for every 100 new registrations — signals a market that is consolidating rather than expanding. The health ratio, which measures registrations against exits, stood at 0.80 , well below the 1.0 threshold that would indicate a balanced ecosystem.

Yet context matters: this is a genuine improvement over the preceding month.

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A Meaningful Turn from December

December 2025 was the more troubled month. It posted a churn rate of 136.9% , a net loss of 4,292 businesses , and a health ratio of only 0.73 .

January’s figures represent a partial but tangible recovery across every key metric:

Metric	December 2025	January 2026	Change
Total Registrations	11,632	11,075	–5%
Total Exits	15,924	13,761	–14%
Net Growth	–4,292	–2,686	+1,606
Churn Rate	136.9%	124.3%	–12.6 pp
Health Ratio	0.73	0.80	+0.07

The health ratio trend of +0.07 and the net growth trend of +1,606 both confirm that the directional shift is real — the ecosystem is under less pressure in January than it was in December, even if it has not yet returned to balance. The sharp drop in deregistrations (from 8,426 in December to 6,312 in January) drove much of this improvement; deregistration sweeps are frequently concentrated at year-end, so some seasonal relaxation in January is structurally expected.

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Dissolutions Surge Year-Over-Year — The Sharpest Signal

When comparing January 2026 to January 2025, the headline registration figure is strong: +27.7% more new registrations , rising from 8,675 to 11,075. That would ordinarily be a positive sign.

But the exit data tells a more complex story. Dissolutions — the formal legal winding-up of companies — jumped 51.6% year-over-year, from 3,564 to 5,403 . This is by far the most significant stress indicator in January’s data. Dissolutions represent deliberate, legally structured closures rather than administrative deregistrations, suggesting that a meaningful number of business owners made active decisions to shut down their companies.

Suspensions also rose substantially, climbing 19.9% year-over-year from 1,706 to 2,046 . Suspensions indicate temporary halts to operations, a step companies often take when facing cash flow difficulties or uncertain market conditions. The nearly 20% annual rise in suspensions points to elevated operational stress among active businesses.

Deregistrations, by contrast, were essentially flat — down just 0.24% from January 2025’s 6,327 to January 2026’s 6,312 . This category tends to include administrative removals (e.g., companies that had already ceased functioning) and is less economically informative than voluntary closures.

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Registration Surge Led by Sole Traders and Freelancers

The 27.7% jump in total registrations year-over-year deserves closer examination, because it is almost entirely driven by one entity type: the PFA (Persoană Fizică Autorizată — authorized individual), Romania’s self-employed/freelancer structure.

PFA registrations nearly doubled, rising 92.1% from 2,319 in January 2025 to 4,455 in January 2026 . By contrast, SRL (limited liability company) registrations grew a more modest 4.5%, from 5,994 to 6,264 .

This distinction matters for business stability. PFAs are individually owned, typically operate in services or transport, and have lower overhead — but they are also more vulnerable to market downturns and regulatory changes. The surge in PFAs inflates the total registration count while the SRL base, representing more structurally complex and capital-invested businesses, grows only modestly.

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Which Sectors Are Driving New Activity?

Among the top industries by new registrations in January 2026:

• Transport și depozitare (Transport & Storage): 2,045 registrations, up a striking +45.3% year-over-year . This sector is the single largest contributor to January’s registration numbers and is likely tied to the PFA surge, as many transport operators register as self-employed.
• Comerț cu ridicata și amănuntul (Wholesale & Retail): 1,646 registrations, up a modest +5.7% — suggesting stable if unspectacular demand in the consumer-facing economy.
• Informații și comunicații (IT & Communications): 1,140 registrations, up +65.9% — one of the sharpest growth rates among major sectors. Romania’s IT sector continues to attract new entrants.
• Activități profesionale, științifice și tehnice (Professional & Scientific Services): 1,085 registrations, up +37.0% .
• Industria prelucrătoare (Manufacturing): 672 registrations, reflecting a striking +94.8% year-over-year jump , though the absolute base of 345 registrations in January 2025 was low, which amplifies the percentage change.
• Construcții (Construction): 914 registrations, essentially flat year-over-year at just +0.3% — indicating saturation or caution in a sector that has been highly active in recent years.

The combination of strong IT and professional services growth alongside the transport PFA wave suggests that Romania’s new-business formation is bifurcating: knowledge economy freelancers on one track, logistics and transport operators on another.

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The Geography of Stress: Where Are Exits Concentrated?

The county-level data reveals sharp geographic divergences in business health. The churn rate — exits as a percentage of new registrations — tells a starkly different story depending on location.

Bucharest stands out as a relative safe harbor: with 2,706 registrations and 2,425 exits, it posted a churn rate of just 89.6% — the only major county where new registrations actually outnumbered exits. Despite having the highest absolute number of dissolutions (998) of any county , Bucharest’s sheer registration volume keeps it in positive territory.

Ilfov, Bucharest’s surrounding county and home to many logistics and suburban commercial hubs, also performed relatively well with a churn rate of 76.6% — the lowest of any top-10 county by exit volume.

At the other end of the spectrum, several counties face serious imbalances:

• Constanța: churn rate of 183.9% — exits nearly double registrations
• Argeș: churn rate of 158.8%
• Bihor: churn rate of 135.5%
• Dolj: churn rate of 130.9%

Constanța’s extreme churn rate is particularly notable. As a coastal county heavily dependent on seasonal tourism, hospitality, and port-related commerce, January is structurally its weakest month — many businesses in these sectors suspend or dissolve operations in winter. That structural seasonality likely explains much of the figure, but the magnitude still stands out.

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Structural Context: January Is Seasonally Challenging

January is historically a difficult month for Romania’s business register. It follows December’s year-end administrative sweeps — when regulators and courts process accumulated dissolution and deregistration cases — meaning some of the exit pressure visible in January still reflects delayed December activity. The 12-month moving average of 12,990 registrations sits above January’s actual 11,075, confirming that this month’s registration volume is below the trailing annual trend — consistent with typical January seasonality when entrepreneurs are less likely to incorporate new ventures at the start of a calendar year.

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Is the Business Ecosystem Healthy?

The data presents a nuanced picture that resists simple characterization.

Signs of stress:

• Total exits (13,761) substantially exceed registrations (11,075), resulting in net business stock contraction
• Dissolutions surged 51.6% year-over-year — a sharp rise in deliberate closures
• Suspensions rose nearly 20% year-over-year, indicating elevated operational difficulty
• Multiple counties outside major urban centers face severe churn imbalances

Signs of resilience:

• The health ratio improved from 0.73 in December to 0.80 in January
• Net business loss narrowed by 1,606 entities month-over-month
• New registrations are 27.7% above January 2025 levels
• IT, professional services, and transport sectors show strong new-entry demand
• Bucharest and Ilfov — together representing a substantial share of Romania’s economic output — remain in positive net-growth territory

The honest verdict: Romania’s business ecosystem entered 2026 in a state of moderate stress. The overall balance remains negative — more businesses are exiting than entering — but the direction of travel improved meaningfully from December’s more acute imbalance. The surge in dissolutions is the single most concerning data point and warrants close monitoring in February and March, when seasonal distortions diminish and the underlying trend becomes clearer. The registration boom in PFAs and IT reflects genuine economic dynamism in specific segments, but does not yet offset the broader pressure on the registered business population.

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Data sourced from Romania’s business registration authority. Figures reflect registered legal entity activity and lifecycle events for January 2026. All year-over-year comparisons reference January 2025.